The polity has been heating up for decades immemorial, fueling the narrative that ‘each and every tribe and region should go its separate ways.’
Hitting the drums much louder in recent times, is the agitations of the Biafra movement and as much as we accept that there are serious issues before us as a country that might warrant total purge, I can tell you that that dream may not come anytime soon with all things being equal.
1. Nigeria is too multi-complex and multi-tribal: This, here, is of both sides. As we argue that it is the major reason for our woes today, it remains one of the potent reasons why we would not split. This is so because it will be a major task for minor tribes to pick a side. As it stands, Nigeria has over 250 ethnic groups and 500 languages. At secession, the question of who should follow who? and what basis will the decision be made? may spark controversies.
2. Political Elites Have Same Interest: Woke Nigerians know and understand that one of the major issues with our politics is that all the politicians are game players using the same tactics; corrupt, egotistical and vacuous leadership. Will this change afterwards? Are they truly fighting the cause of masses if they pick interest in this narrative?
3. International Narrative has Changed: Times have changed in the international scene. Nigeria has lost most of its relevance and vitality on the international stage except maybe, of course, its population. Before now, Nigeria was a contender which any world power would have hurriedly sought to dismember but now, what is being seen is Nigeria becoming a laughing stock.
4. Stakes Of International Actors Is Low: Spilting may not favour the international political actors much. Oil has dwindled in value.
5. Past Lessons: Taking a cue from past nations that have gone this path, this narrative may be ill-advised, coupled with the imbalance in the natural distribution and endowments of resources across regions of the country. Do we really think regions with less resources to survive on will advocate for this move? The Yugoslavia story tells us so, some of the USSR nations have nothing much to write home about today.